Balducci leads among centrists; Zahilay among progressives

In July, I wrote a glowing endorsement for Girmay Zahilay, who is running for King County Executive. I still endorse him wholeheartedly.

In my endorsement I also praised his opponent Claudia Balducci for her top-tier intellectual and leadership skills, her personal and interpersonal qualities, and the fact that she has been a stalwart on transit. I continue to believe all those things. In fact, when I look at the moderate political establishment that has governed this region for decades, she is among the best it has had to offer.

But she is genuinely more of a moderate than Girmay, who is both a generational leader and a progressive who puts left-behind communities at the center of all his work. He is an immigrant who was raised by a single mom in public housing in South Seattle. This crucible has clearly shaped him—fighting to make government work for those left behind: working families, renters, and communities furthest from power. He led the creation of the crisis care center initiative and has brought tenant protections and major investments to long-overlooked parts of our county.

Even though I’m personally very fond of them both, I do find it irritating when news reporters continue to parrot the line that they are “both progressives.” 

But the voters seem to have noticed the differences. In a NW Progressive Poll, Balducci is a hair ahead of Zahilay, within the margin of error of the poll. If you break it down, Girmay leads by low double-digits among progressives, whereas Claudia has a 22-point lead among “voters who said they had a mixture of progressive and right-wing views.”

The vote among Republicans is extremely close, with a four point edge for Zahilay. (An earlier version of this newsletter misread the poll and inferred that Balducci was ahead—that was incorrect. I sent out a correction immediately upon learning this. Apologies to all involved!).

The results show an ideological split, but not a party split. Still, the ideological split of their Democratic voters tracks with my previous claim that there is real daylight between them.

I wrote in my endorsement, as an example, that Balducci leaned into cuts in her campaign, and didn’t sign up to a broad coalition letter (signed even by tons of moderates) asking the legislature for tax-the-rich fixes for our chronically inflation-starved county budget, which funds things like public health, public safety, and buses.

Since then, Claudia endorsed the leader of Renton’s anti-minimum wage campaign (though she promptly retracted when it emerged he was MAGA) and embraced the notion that organized retail theft (which is way down) is a “major factor” driving the closure of grocery stores. She was also at the helm of both Bellevue and the King County adult and youth jail system, neither of which is known for pushing the progressive envelope forward. 

My belief is thus that this is an election that pits a top-tier moderate against a top-tier progressive—or the best of our status quo against the best of our future. 

To be clear, I certainly don’t blame Balducci for our establishment's many failures. She has often been a voice of reason in the room in our dysfunctional institutions like the regional homelessness authority and Sound Transit’s expansion planning. 

But I do think her history compared with Zahilay’s suggests that she is less likely to change that status quo than he is, and I’m very unsatisfied with that status quo.

As an example, when other moderate and even progressive politicians embraced Bruce Harrell because he was seen as inevitable—despite his ugly legacy of catering to abusers of women and children, and his many, many failures of governance—Girmay did not. 

He was one of the few leaders in the region, even among progressives, who didn’t accept that he had to cater to some narrative of inevitability about Bruce or cower because Harrell is famously vindictive. 

That tells me that Girmay has serious courage. 

When you mix that with his personal experience, his proven leadership, his bright mind and his big heart–and his thoroughgoingly progressive values—I think he’s the leader we most need in this dark hour. 

Vote Girmay.

Watch Girmay speak at the No Kings Rally. He was inspiring!