Correction: Poll shows Balducci Edge with Centrists, Zahilay with Progressives, Republicans SPLIT

Friends, I have learned that I made an incorrect assertion in my previous post and I wanted to fact-check myself as quickly as possible out of respect for the truth, the pollster involved, and both candidates in the King County Executive race.

I incorrectly stated that NPI didn't say who has an advantage among the 70% of Republicans who have decided. I was wrong. NPI actually did provide that information: the crosstabs they published were for the initial question ("Who are you voting for to be the next King County Executive? If you already voted, please indicate who you voted for"). They were not for the follow-up questions posed to undecided voters and voters who had not yet returned a ballot. I made a mistake.

Sorry.

The truth is that Republican voters are split, with Girmay Zahilay ahead by four percentage points— 37% to 33%—which means my headline was wrong.

I stand by the other parts of my analysis - there is real daylight between the candidates and it is showing up in their respective voter-shares—centrists are gravitating to Balducci, progressives are gravitating to Zahilay.

This suggests meaningful division by ideology, but not by party. While I have ideas about why this could be, they are largely speculative.

Something I also didn’t call out but seems that is worth noting is that this race is tied as far as the poll goes—with the results within the margin of error. And many undecideds remain.

As I said before, a true nail biter.

Thank you for your forbearance and my humblest apologies for the mistake.